Political polling guru says data on referendum is ‘pretty definitive’ unless there is a major crisis in EnglandThe campaign for Scottish independence has “virtually no chance” of victory, according to Nate Silver, the polling expert who accurately called the outcomes of the 2008 and 2012 US presidential elections.In an interview with The Scotsman, Silver, who correctly predicted the results of all 50 states in 2012, said the Scottish data was “pretty definitive”. “There’s virtually no chance that the ‘yes’ side will win,” he said. “If you look at the polls, it’s pretty definitive really where the no side is at 60-55% and the yes side is about 40 or so.”Speaking at the Edinburgh international book festival, he added: “There is a wide variety of polls and they all show the ‘no’ vote ahead, some by modest margins and some by overwhelming margins. The best you can do is take an average of those.”If there was a major crisis in England – if the eurozone split apart and there were ramifications economically [for the UK] then maybe things would be reconsidered a little bit.”For the most part it looks like it’s a question of how much the ‘no’ side will win …read more

Via: The Guardian | Books